Economy
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The End of America First? Stock Index Relative Value Analysis: US vs EU/UK/Japan
No, I am not talking about US administration policy before Biden’s, I am talking about stock index trend between US market vs other 3 major markets (EU, UK, Japan), which has been there since the great recession of 2008 for more than 12 years. I noticed it the first time around 2 years ago, but with latest Coronacrisis and turmoil in bond market lately, this trend might be about to change. Motivation In my previous article explaining the relationship between bond market and stock market by comparing 10-year treasury bond yield (risk-free rate) and
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License to Yield: How Bond Actions Affect S&P 500 (and Others)
It has been more than a decade since the first time negative interest rates were introduced in 2009, by Sveriges Riksbank, central bank of Sweden in overnight deposit rate. However, the real negative interest rate policy (NIRP) were introduced broadly since 2014, which was called one of the greatest monetary policy experiments. Later, it was adopted by Bank of Japan in 2016, in which ultra-low negative interest rates were already introduced previously in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Euro area deposit facility graph (tradingeconomics.com) Bank of Japan interest rate decision
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Why 2020 is Different: FX Risk View on 43 Currency Pairs vs USD
In many risk management practice, especially for those who are dealing with market risk in daily basis, year 2008 must be still lingering in their minds. The great recession of 2008 is so great in effect that it has triggered reforms in many regulatory and accounting standards, in which I mentioned one of them in my last post (Basel 4). The year is also used in stress scenarios of many financial market business, strategy, and even regulatory capital calculation. However, how about 2020? The Great Pandemic of 2020 Year 2020,
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Dancing Through The Coup: South East Asia through Myanmar’s Viral Coup Video
(Originally published in LinkedIn – February 2021) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1SwzrcY9eE&feature=emb_logo In midst of Myanmar coup event, there is one video went viral: a video of an aerobic instructor Khin Hnin Wai dancing to the tune of an Indonesian song “Ampun Bang Jago”, unaware there’s a military convoy when the coup taking place. For many observers, there’s nothing more perfect than this video to show how interesting South East Asia really is. First, the “Ampun Bang Jago” is Indonesian music gaining popularity originally through TikTok. The music used by youths in Indonesia